2007 Orange Bowl, Louisville vs. Wake Forest, Orange Bowl preview, Orange Bowl prediction

Orange Bowl

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Orange Bowl - Louisville vs. Wake Forest
Tuesday, January 2, 8:00 p.m. ET
Dolphins Stadium - Miami, FL
Series History: This will be the first meeting between the two schools.
Nothing offensive about Louisville’s O. The Cardinals rank only behind Hawaii for the best offense in all
You may run a little, pass for a lot more, but you may never score! Wake Forest doesn’t have one
of college football. Louisville racked up 5,722 total yards this year and 58 touchdowns. The Cardinals house the seventh best passing attack in the NCAA and the 21st rushing offense. Put it all together and Louisville is tied for the third best mark in points scored with 38.9. It’s a safe bet that when the Cardinals trot onto the field come January 2, yards will be racked up and points will be scored. Offense anyone?
of the best defenses in all of college football, but the Demon Deacons excel in the one category that essentially matters the most. Wake is ranked 22nd against the run, allowing just over 100 yards per game while the pass defense is surrendering 214.4 yards a game for a 72nd ranking. However, the Deacons often turn away opponents when they get inside the red zone, allowing just 15.4 points per game. Not that Wake wants opponents in the red zone all the time, but it does appear that the Deacons are most comfortable defensively when the other team is ready to put points on the board.
Wideouts Harry Douglas and Mario Urrutia vs. the NCAA’s 72nd pass defense. Despite winning the
Jon Abbate vs. Kolby Smith. One of the reasons Louisville is so explosive is because of its balance
game, Wake Forest allowed Georgia Tech’s NFL-bound Calvin Johnson to snag eight receptions for 177 yards in the ACC title game. The Deacons survived the contest because Johnson was all the Jackets had rolling on offense. That won’t be the case in the Orange Bowl, seeing as how Louisville has a mountain of talent on offense. Douglas and Urrutia are physically gifted and have one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in Brian Brohm getting them the football. The Cardinals need to exploit Wake’s secondary with vertical passes and deep crossing routes. For the most part, Louisville needs to leave the dink and dunk passes at home and go for the throat of Wake’s defense.
The Cardinals keep opposing defenses on their heels and strike for long gains when they know they have the edge. Since stud running back Michael Bush went down in the first game of the season, Smith has stepped up to the tune of 780 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Abbate is going to have his hands full, but the junior linebacker is often the most prepared defender on Wake’s defense. Abbate is extremely physical and can shed blocks well, so making sure Smith is turned away at the line of scrimmage will be priority number one. If Smith starts proceeding into his holes more cautiously because of Abbate, the Deacons can shut down the run and take away the balance that Louisville’s offense thrives on.
Throw the ball to win. Louisville will win if it doesn’t change much offensively.The Cardinals simply
Wake needs to dictate the pace of this game from the outset. Get into a shootout with Louisville and the
don’t have to. Louisville has been on a roll since losing to Rutgers and a big part of that is because Bobby Petrino’s bunch stays aggressive. Quarterback Brian Brohm can exploit Wake’s secondary. If Brohm can get into a nice rhythm with receivers Harry Douglas and Mario Urrutia, the Deacons are going to have a hard time trying to dictate the pace of this contest. The Cardinals need to step on the gas and never let their collective foot off the pedal, because Wake shouldn’t be able to hang with Louisville’s explosive offense. Brohm shouldn’t be afraid to throw; Petrino needs to trust in the quarterback who threw just five interceptions this season compared to 16 touchdowns. Having balance is always extremely important, however. Get too pass happy and the Deacons can make adjustments. Kolby Smith is only averaging about 65 rushing yards per game, but the Cardinals usually get anywhere from 40 to 60 yards from the backups too. Smith can really determine the pace of the game if he can continuously hit his holes hard and not dance too much. Louisville can dominate offensively; the Cardinals just can’t be too predictable because that’s what Wake feeds on. Louisville has had some brain farts on defense throughout the year, but usually the Cardinals are pretty solid. Just like on offense, Louisville needs to stay aggressive defensively. Everything revolves around outside linebacker Malik Jackson, who is easily the Cardinals biggest playmaker defensively. Jackson is often aided by 315-pound senior defensive tackle Amobi Okoye. Okoye needs to create some havoc in Wake’s backfield and disrupt the run game. If Okoye attracts double teams, that can really set the linebackers free to blitz. If the Deacons get comfortable offensively, they can be deadly. So stay aggressive, cause turnovers and remain disciplined in the secondary.
Deacons nice season will end miserably. Wake just doesn’t have the horses on either side of the ball to completely take over the game. So that means long, clock-eating drives on offense and causing turnovers on defense. Wake was fifth in the ACC in time of possession, so the Deacons can play the kind of ball-control game to win. Freshman QB Riley Skinner has done a fantastic job this season, but now is not the time to be a hero. Skinner doesn’t have a ton of arm strength and lacks accuracy at times, but he is extremely intelligent on the field. He’s also very tough and he can escape the pocket if need be. It’s imperative that Wake not turn the ball over and give Louisville a short field. The Cardinals can score from anywhere on the gridiron, so make them go the length of it at all times. The Deacons love to run misdirection plays with their wide receiver-turned-tailback Kenneth Moore. Moore probably can’t change the game with one run like a Darren McFadden or Adrian Peterson, so sticking to the misdirection plays are going to be necessary to eat up a lot of yards, and more importantly, the clock. Keep Louisville’s offense off the field. On defense, the name of the game is simple - get turnovers. The Deacons lived off the turnover all season and it helped mask the deficiencies in the secondary. As noted in the key match up section, Jon Abbate anchors Wake’s traditional 4-3 set. Abbate’s going to need to be a mad man and constantly attack Louisville’s line of scrimmage. Disrupt the run game and the Cardinals may revert to the pass and the pass only. Not that Wake needs constant pressure on its secondary, but one way to beat Louisville is to make the Cardinals one-dimensional. And just because the unit ranks 72nd in the NCAA in pass defense, doesn’t mean that it’s not athletic. Free safety Josh Gattis and corners Alphonso Smith and Riley Swanson have all combined for 12 interceptions this season. If the secondary can cause a turnover or two and the offense can stay on the field for long drives, the Deacons may pull off the upset. Get behind early, however, and it will probably be a long night.
Showtime for Brohm. Brian Brohm is an easy choice for the x-factor, but think about it for a second. Like a
The Deacons are only has strong as their Coach of the Year. The job that Jim Grobe has done at Wake
professional player who is in a contract season, the junior quarterback is trying to make a name for himself. Brohm wants to prove that he’s worthy of a first round selection in next April’s NFL draft, so why not perform well on a national stage? Not that Brohm needs any extra motivation to help the Cardinals win their first BCS bowl game. But the reality of the situation is that a great showing can go a long way from being a “project” to a “bona fide starter” at the next level.
this season has been remarkable. No coach in college football has less to work with year in and year out than Grobe does. And all the sixth-year head coach has done is given Wake its first 11-win season in school history, win an ACC title and taken the program to its first BCS bowl game. What often gets overlooked about the Deacons’ 2006 season is that Wake finished 6-0 on the road. That’s coaching. Grobe might be the best coach in college football to have a team ready to play a game where it’s the underdog.
Since Brian Brohm has been a consistent name used throughout this preview, why not make him a
Fair warning, this fun fact has nothing to do with Demon Deacon football, but it is interesting.
part of the fun fact too? Brohm was drafted in MLB following his senior year in high school. Brian’s brother, Jeff, was also drafted out of high school and played in the minor leagues during the summers of his college career. So instead of leading the Cardinals to a potential Orange Bowl victory, Brian could be playing in the NL West with the Colorado Rockies.
Has anybody checked out who Wake has produced from its golf course over the years? Here are some of the notable alumni or attendees of Wake Forest that obviously have made their way around the links: Billy Andrade, Jay Haas, Arnold Palmer, Lanny Wadkins and Curtis Strange. You could field an entire Wake Forest golf team with these Deacon professionals.
Analysis and Prediction
One of two things is going to happen in this game. Either Louisville is going to jump out to a big lead and keep adding on for a potential blowout or Wake is going to control the temp of this game and win a thriller. For the latter to happen, the Deacons would have to cause turnovers to keep up. And quite frankly, the Cardinals just don’t turn the ball over. Brian Brohm is going to use this game as a highlight piece for Mel Kiper Jr. in next April’s NFL draft: Louisville 34, Wake Forest 17.