2007 BCS National Championship, Florida vs. Ohio State, BCS National Championship preview, BCS National Championship prediction

BCS National Championship

Bowl Preview Home / Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home

ALSO: Want to get in on the bowl action? Find the latest spreads from four major handicappers for all of this year's bowl match-ups with our College Football Lines.

BCS National Championship Game - Florida vs. Ohio State
Monday, January 8, 8:00 p.m. ET
Cardinal Stadium - Glendale, AZ
Series History: This will be the first meeting between Florida and Ohio State. This is one hell of a first meeting, huh?
Florida’s defense is the heart of the team. The Gators defensive unit is ranked 10th in the NCAA, allowing
Ohio State is at its best with what matters most in football. Scouting, preparation and planning are all
just 268.8 total yards per game. The run defense is phenomenal, but more will come on this facet of Florida’s defense in the key match up section. The secondary has been the “weakness” of the Gators defense, but the unit is still holding opponents under 200 yards per game. One of the main reasons why the pass defense is ranked 51st is because opponents have ditched the run as early as the first half to try and keep pace with the Gators after falling behind. Ohio State can’t underestimate Florida’s secondary and get too pass happy. Despite bloated pass defense numbers, the Gators D is solid all the way around.
keys to winning football games. But when it comes down to it, putting more points on the scoreboard than the other team is the only thing that matters. The Buckeyes are exceptional at scoring and keeping opposing offenses out of the end zone. OSU ranks seventh in scoring offense and has the second best scoring defense in the country. The Buckeyes offensive attack has averaged a staggering 36.3 points per game while the defense has only allowed a suffocating 10.4 points per contest. Only Virginia Tech (9.3) is allowing fewer points per game than OSU.
Florida will be victorious if it can create havoc on the defensive side of the ball. Ohio State quarterback
Ohio State needs to stick to its offensive identity and the Buckeyes will be fine. Michigan was the only
Troy Smith has been sacked just 10 times this season, thanks to a mixture of three things. First and foremost, the Buckeyes offensive line is outstanding in pass protection and often gives Smith plenty of time to throw the ball. Secondly, if Smith does encounter pressure, he usually buys more time with his mobility outside the pocket. Lastly, Smith is deadly accurate and makes quick decisions, which leads to defenders barely getting out of their first move before the ball is in the air. It doesn’t matter how they do it, the Gators must get pressure on Smith. If Florida sits back and plays OSU heads up, the Buckeyes are just going to spread the field out and create mismatches. The Gators have a ton of talent on the defensive line, so bringing pressure shouldn’t be a monumental task. Ray McDonald has moved from defensive end to tackle in place of the booted Marcus Thomas, and has done a great job of getting an up-field rush. Ends Jarvis Moss and Derrick Harvey are studs. If Moss and Harvey can create enough pass pressure on Smith by themselves, the talented linebacker core of Brandon Siler and Earl Everett can help in coverage. With OSU probably set to run multiple receiver sets, Florida might be wise in playing a 4-2-5 set. Siler and Everett are fast enough to blanket the middle of the field and that way the Gators can bring in an extra defensive back to help double either Ted Ginn Jr. or Anthony Gonzalez. The only problem with this formation is that it opens up lanes for Antonio Pittman, Chris Wells and the rest of the Buckeye ground game. That extra defensive back might have to be a safety to help beef up the run protection. Another rout is to just play talented cornerback Ryan Smith one-on- one with Ginn. That’s a recipe for disaster for most defenses, but Smith does have eight interceptions this year and it might bait Troy Smith into only focusing on trying to get the ball to Ginn. The Gators could then disguise formations in which stud strong safety Reggie Nelson doubles Ginn on the outside and forces Troy Smith into a poor throw. Whatever game plan Florida decides to go with defensively, being predictable is not an option against an explosive Buckeye offense. Flipping to the offense, senior Chris Leak cannot have any lapses of concentration if Florida is going to pull off the upset. Leak has been known for either being a hero or a goat on any given week, but being a goat in this game means an OSU romp. The Buckeyes force turnovers like the Amish churn out butter, so Leak might have to play a completely mistake free game for Florida to win. Tim Tebow needs to be involved plenty in the offense as well, seeing as how tailback DeShawn Wynn can’t carry a game on his own. However, Michigan had a bit of success when running at the edges of the Buckeye defense, so forcing the ground game to the outside might not be such a bad idea for Florida. This would then get middle linebacker James Laurinaitis out of his back pedal quicker and open up the middle of the field for receivers Andre Caldwell and Dallas Baker. Running at the edges of OSU’s defense also neutralizes tackles Quinn Pitcock and David Patterson from completely running amuck in the Gator backfield. Once again though, if Leak doesn’t play mistake-free ball, it won’t matter what offensive game plan Florida comes in with.
other defense that OSU has seen that is as talented as Florida, and the Buckeyes hung 42 points on the Wolverines. Spreading the Gators out on defense should be the primary focus of head coach Jim Tressel. As talented as Florida is defensively, even the Gators can’t hang with OSU when the Buckeyes are clicking on all cylinders. OSU just brings too much to the table. How the Buckeyes beat Michigan was to completely spread the Wolverines thin on defense. UM came into the contest ranked first in run defense, but OSU gashed the Wolverines for 187 yards, including touchdown runs of 56 and 52 yards. Even without stud defensive tackle Marcus Thomas – who was kicked off the team for violating team policies multiple times – the Gators were still able to rank sixth against the run this year. However, the Gators are going to have to pick their poison against the Buckeyes. Attacking Florida with three and four wide receiver sets will spread the Gators out and create one-on-one match ups all over the field. Tressel is a phenomenal strategist, so he knows that using multiple receiver sets will allow exceptional pass catchers Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez to break free in Florida’s secondary. Spreading the Gators out also creates gaps in the front seven where Antonio Pittman and Chris Wells can break free for long gains. Mix in one of the most accurate quarterbacks in Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith and Florida has nightmares all over the place. Defensively, the Buckeyes are going to encounter several wrinkles that they didn’t see throughout the ’06 season. Florida head coach Urban Meyer is going to need to get all of his perimeter players involved in the game plan, so the Buckeyes don’t necessarily have to focus on stopping the run. DeShawn Wynn and Tim Tebow can be good straight-line runners, but neither possesses the breakaway talent that can turn the game on its head. Defensive tackles Quinn Pitcock and David Patterson are beasts on the defensive line for OSU and are so stout against the run that middle linebacker James Laurinaitis is often free to make plays in pass coverage. Laurinaitis is a true playmaker and has been a turnover machine for the Buckeyes all season. He’s quick in coverage and smart, so the Buckeyes should definitely let him patrol the middle of the field and take away underneath passing routes. Outside linebacker Marcus Freeman could then be free to either blitz or shadow Wynn. In the secondary, sophomore Malcolm Jenkins can completely take away one side of the field without safety help, so playing a zone against the Gators should be mostly beneficial. It doesn’t make sense to play man-to-man on the Florida receivers with as many crossing routes as Meyer likes to throw at an opposing defense. Free safety Brandon Mitchell would also excel in a zone and would be better served as a centerfielder seeing as how both Andre Caldwell and Dallas Baker are equally dangerous. The Buckeye defense has lived off the turnover all season, so forcing Florida into a mistake would be huge as well.
Just give the freshman the damn ball. No team fighting for a title wants a freshman to have a huge
Ohio State has more on the line than just a championship. Playing for a national title and the crown
role in the game plan, but Florida’s Tim Tebow is quite the exception. Tebow is a fantastic athlete who was recruited as the Gators next stud quarterback, but has seen a lot of action at tailback this season. In games where Urban Meyer has gotten Tebow heavily involved in the game plan, the Florida offense has flourished. Tebow gives the Gators so many options because he’s a threat to run or pass on every down. Senior quarterback Chris Leak has fought off Tebow’s resurgence to be the starting quarterback this season, but Leak also knows that Tebow brings another dimension to the offense. Tebow has thrown four touchdown passes and rushed for another seven this season. Use him as a short yardage back or in a shotgun option, it doesn’t matter, just use the freshman.
of best college football team in the country should be motivation enough. However, Ohio State has even more to prove than being the number one ranked team in the NCAA. The Buckeyes have only played one team (Michigan) with a winning record since September. Many have questioned whether OSU really is the hands down favorite for the number one spot. Crushing Florida on college football’s largest national stage would certainly go a long way in validating the Buckeyes seeding. How about back to back wins over the second best team in the country? The 2006 Buckeyes would be one of the most talked about teams in college football history if OSU can pull off a victory. How about that for motivation?
Florida gets to celebrate two milestones in the 2006 season. The first is the 10-year anniversary
Troy Smith didn’t just win the 2006 Heisman Trophy, he ran away with it. Smith became the first true
of its first national championship. In 1996, the Gators crushed rival Florida State 52-20 in the Sugar Bowl. Now 10 years later, Florida gets a crack at its second national championship. The second milestone is that Florida gets to celebrate 100 years of Gator football. In 100 years of play, Florida has been recognized as SEC champions seven times (finishing first in the conference three times) and will now have two national title appearances under its belt.
quarterback from the Big Ten to ever win the honored award by throwing for 2,507 yards, 30 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He received 86.7 percent of the first place votes, which set a new Heisman Trophy record. Smith’s margin of victory (1,662 votes) was also the second largest in the history of the award, eclipsed only by USC running back O.J. Simpson who won by 1,750 votes in 1968.
Analysis and Prediction
Without the sake of trying to get into a huge argument, Florida deserves to be playing for a national championship. Michigan had its shot at knocking the best team in college football off its perch and the Wolverines didn’t get it done. The Gators have every right to be on the same field as the Buckeyes come January 8. However, SEC enthusiasts might be in for a rude awakening if they think the Big Ten is an inferior conference. Most college football pundits have it in their heads that the Big Ten is just big, slow, pound-the-ball-on-the-ground football while the SEC is home of the high-powered passing attack. Guess what? Ohio State is the closest thing to the SEC brand of football. The Gators are strong defensively, but Jim Tressel’s offense is outstanding and complicated to defend for 60 minutes. If the run game gets shut down, then Tressel can open up the playbook for Troy Smith and throw a barrage of formations at the Gator defense. Florida will probably hang with the Buckeyes much like Texas did in September, but eventually Ohio State will strike for big plays and wear the Gators down. Florida has to be able to score points and unfortunately the Gators just don’t have the firepower Michigan did on offense to keep pace with the Buckeye offense: Ohio State 21, Florida 10.