Baseball's best young guns
05/25/2007
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Question for true baseball fans out there: In 2006, what was more exciting, Francisco Liriano’s next start or a meaningless Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard or Enter Player Name here home run?
It’s hard to argue against a game-winning dinger in the bottom of the ninth to propel your team to victory, so I won’t. However, how thrilling is it to hear your favorite team announce the promotion of a young pitcher from Triple-A to the big leagues? I’m not talking about a fill-in start because of injury, but an actual move made to improve the future of the club.
Going back to the earlier comparison, obviously the home run is still pretty damn exciting – let’s face it, chicks will always dig the long ball – but how thrilling is a solo dinger when your team is down 15-2 in the eighth and sitting in fourth place? Instead, how about a 22-year-old phenom with excellent “stuff” making his major league debut? To a true baseball fan, there’s no comparison – the rookie thrower’s potential and air of mystery make it worth tuning in whether your team is in first or fighting to stay out of the cellar.
In ’06, the then 22-year-old Liriano went 12-3 with an astonishing 2.16 ERA and 144 strikeouts. In 28 games, he yielded just 31 runs (29 earned) in 121 innings pitched and gave up only nine homers. Every five days, Liriano taking the hill was thrilling not only to Twins fans, but to baseball fans in general. The game really took a hit when it was announced late last year that he would have to miss the entire ’07 season with an elbow injury. That in itself shows how much excitement a young arm like Liriano can bring to the game.
With that said, below is a ranking of the 10 best starting pitchers 24 years or younger worth paying close attention to throughout the rest of the season. It’s tough to cut the age at 24 because studs like Jake Peavy and Dontrelle Willis miss the cut, but hey, got to draw the line somewhere.
Make note, however, that this isn’t a ranking of guys in the minors who need a few years to develop. These are guys already in the majors who look poised to step up into the elite class of big league starters. I realize a couple of these pitchers have already made names for themselves, but this list is more to remind fans how young these guys are and how their production shouldn’t be taken for granted.
1. Cole Hamels, 23, Philadelphia Phillies
Simply put, Hamels has been absolutely lights out so far this year, posting a 6-2 record with a 3.67 ERA and 78 strikeouts. While his ERA may seem a bit high for a pitcher with a 6-2 record, he also was the rock of an otherwise underachieving Phillies club over the first month of the season. It appears Philly has turned around its offense, however, and with that Hamels should only see his numbers rise. If he stays healthy, he certainly has the tools to post 200 strikeouts and 20 wins. The young lefty’s changeup is just plain sick.
2. Felix Hernandez, 21, Seattle Mariners
Talk about a tough break for a promising pitcher, “King” Felix arrived in Seattle last January in the best shape of his young career. Then on April 11 Hernandez out dueled Rookie of the Year candidate Daisuke Matsuzaka, giving up just one hit in a 3-0 Mariners victory. But Hernandez left his next start against the Twins in the first inning due to tightness in his right arm, which was later discovered to be a flexor-pronator strain in his right elbow and forearm. He went on the 15-day DL, but returned May 15 to throw 78 pitches in 3 2/3 innings against the Angels and reported no problems. If he remains healthy, Hernandez might be the best pitching prospect in the entire game with his dazzling fastball and power curve.
3. Justin Verlander, 24, Detroit Tigers
Verlander is one of the pitchers who jumped onto the scene last year, posting a 17-8 record with 164 strikeouts. The novelty of Verlander must have worn off, however, because not many people are talking about him this year despite leading Tiger starters with a 2.68 ERA. In his last start, Verlander logged his longest outing of the season, throwing eight innings and giving up just five hits and two runs in Detroit’s 6-3 victory over the Cardinals. He seems to be picking up steam now, winning all four of his May starts, so maybe he’ll start getting the recognition he deserves again.
4. Matt Cain, 22, San Francisco Giants
Looking at Cain’s numbers, one might think I’m absolutely nuts including him on this list – never mind placing him fourth – but he’s also fallen victim to a couple of hard-luck losses this season. He’s only 2-4, but has the same 3.30 ERA as Hamels and a similar WHIP (walks + hits / innings pitched) of 1.22 (Hamels’ is 1.20), which is proof positive that a little more run support and maybe Cain is 6-1 as well. Cain’s best feature is his 96 mph fastball, but he also has a very effective curve, slider and changeup. He’s also an innings-eater and despite popular belief, Cain should be the Giants ace, not Barry Zito.
5. Scott Kazmir, 23, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
After a fantastic start, Kazmir experienced some injury problems last year and seems to have lost a bit of confidence so far in ’07. However, he’s still 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, and has one of the best arms in the league. On a better team, he would probably be a consistent 15-game winner, but could still post 20 wins with Tampa soon – he’s just that good. One of his issues this season, however, has been the fact that Kazmir has thrown at least 100 pitches in every contest but one (a 96 pitch performance in his last start versus Seattle), including 117 against the Blue Jays only a week ago. If he stops trying to strike every batter out, his numbers should start improving and maybe his confidence will follow.
6. Tom Gorzelanny, 24, Pittsburgh Pirates
If his bullpen didn’t blow a six-run lead in his last start, Gorzelanny would have one more victory to his already solid 5-3 record. He ranks fourth in the NL in ERA (2.51 mark) and 13th in innings pitched (64.2). He also suffered a 1-0 loss to the Cubs in his seventh start of the year, even though he went seven strong innings yielding just a solo dinger that proved to be the deathblow. Gorzelanny doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but his delivery is deceptive and his fastball has snuck up on hitters this year. Team Gorzelanny with fellow youngsters Ian Snell and Zach Duke, and the Pirates are putting together quite a young, solid rotation.
7. Fausto Carmona, 23, Cleveland Indians
I could only image what Tribe fans thought when Carmona posted a 1-10 record last year in 38 games. However, their patience is being rewarded this season as Carmona is developing into a nice pitching prospect, posting a 5-1 record with a 2.77 ERA, the fourth-best mark in the AL. He threw a four-hit shutout against the Twins on May 17, which was good for his fourth-straight victory. Another interesting stat on Carmona is that he’s 3-0 on the road, which is usually a tough situation for a young pitcher. Ironically enough, Carmona broke camp with the Tribe only because Cliff Lee began the year on the DL. Despite his numbers, Carmona was sent back down to the minors when Lee returned, only to be quickly recalled when Jake Westbrook hit the DL. Considering his success, the Indians will have a tough time demoting Carmona again once Westbrook is healthy.
8. Jered Weaver, 24, Los Angles Angels
Weaver has been the forgotten one since going 11-2 with a 2.56 ERA last year. He suffered a biceps injury at the start of the ’07 season and then was pounded by Detroit in his second start coming off the disabled list. But since then, Weaver has pitched five quality outings and successfully lowered his ERA to 3.46. He seems to be setting up for a nice return and with the Angels’ potent lineup, he’ll certainly improve on his 3-3 record and may top his 11 wins of a year ago.
9. Scott Olsen, 23, Florida Marlins
Olsen appears to be yet another talented young arm to come out of Florida’s farm system. Even though he’s posted an ERA of 4.76, a WHIP of 1.59 and a record of just 4-3 thus far in ‘07, his numbers don’t paint the entire picture. While he’s prone to giving up a lot of hits, he has the stuff of a strikeout artist. Olsen’s slider complements his decent fastball and he has a nice changeup that fools hitters deep in counts. He out pitched Hamels on May 22, going six innings and giving up just three runs on four hits, evidence that he's a big game pitcher. As he continues to develop, however, he’ll need to start working deeper than the 5.5 innings he’s averaging thus far.
10. Tim Lincecum, 22, San Francisco Giants
Phil Hughes of the Yankees could have garnered some consideration at this 10 spot if not for his recent injury, but Lincecum looks like the real deal with just four major league starts under his belt. After being schooled by Hamels in his big league debut, Lincecum has tossed three straight gems, including notching his first career victory versus the Rockies as well as a no decision and win against the Astros. Thus far, he’s 2-0 with a 3.08 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 25 strikeouts, but his stuff has been even better than the numbers indicate. In a no-decision against Houston on May 17, he pitched seven innings, giving up just one run on two hits while striking out 10. Lincecum looks like he should be the Giants’ bat boy with his 5’11”, 170-pound frame, but has a fastball that hits the high 90s and his awkward delivery has fooled hitters in college, the minors and now thus far in the majors. His teammates call him “the franchise” for good reason.
Questions or comments? Send them to astalter@bullz-eye.com.