07/06/2007
Sports Channel / Baseball Home / Bullz-Eye Home
So we screwed the pooch by picking the pitching-starved Yankees to win the AL East, the offensively challenged White Sox to top the Tribe in the AL Central, and the upstart Brewers to finish fourth in the NL Central. We’d instead prefer to focus on the fact that our prediction of the Tigers as World Series champs still holds plenty of water, and the Angels may just run away with the NL West crown and, as we predicted, earn Mike Scioscia Manager of the Year honors along the way. We’d also like to point out that the Nationals, Royals and Reds are awful, as we said they’d be last spring. What’s that? Everyone knew those teams would be bad? Okay, fine: like Pat Burrell, we’re hovering around the Mendoza Line with our preseason predictions, but the midway point offers a chance at redemption. We’ve got our second-half forecast below along with our updated postseason forecast and awards predictions. We may have started slow out of the gate, but we’ve always been a second-half player.
AL East
Preseason Forecast:
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Midseason Forecast:
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankkes
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Baltimore Orioles
Outlook: We’re going to go against our better judgment and say the Red Sox actually hang on to a second half lead. We know, we’re in trouble, but besides a hot week, the Yankees look as bad as their record indicates. We’re betting the Bronx Bombers at least make it interesting, however.
AL Central
Preseason Forecast:
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
Midseason Forecast:
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Outlook: The Tigers have one of the best offenses in the league and the pitching – which was tops in 2006 – is starting to come around again. The Tribe is better than we originally thought, but can they hold off Detroit in the division or the Yankees or A’s for the Wild Card? It’s going to be tough, but we think it’s the Indians’ year to at least make a postseason appearance.
AL West
Preseason Forecast:
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
Midseason Forecast:
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland A’s
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
Outlook: If the Angels can elude the injury bug, they might be the top dogs in the AL. The A’s are always tough during the second half, so watch for them to at least compete for the Wild Card. We missed the boat on the Mariners, who have had a surprisingly decent first-half run, but don't be surprised if they crumble after the sudden retirement of manager Mike Hargrove.
NL East
Preseason Forecast:
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
Florida Marlins
Washington Nationals
Midseason Forecast:
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Florida Marlins
Washington Nationals
Outlook: We’d stick with our prediction of the Phillies if the pitching were at least somewhat trustworthy. The Mets are slumping, but if Pedro Martinez returns healthy they should win the division, especially considering they have the most balanced offense in the division. We're not sure what to make of the Braves. They could finish first as easily as they could come in third.
NL Central
Preseason Forecast:
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
Midseason Forecast:
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
Houston Astros
Outlook: Do we feel good about crowning the Brew Crew with only a 7.5 game lead over St. Louis? No, but we would've felt equally as uncomfortable giving the division to the Cards when they were absolutely atrocious in the first half. The Cubs could surprise because of pitching, but the offense is just too inconsistent.
NL West
Preseason Forecast:
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Midseason Forecast:
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
Outlook: After two years of producing crap baseball, the NL West is actually pretty exciting this year thanks to the Padres, Dodgers and Giants being ranked in the top 10 in team ERA. San Diego boasts the best pitching staff in the league and it’s foolish to go against a team with such a strong rotation.
Postseason Forecast
AL Wild Card: Cleveland Indians (Preseason: Boston)
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies (Preseason: New York Mets)
AL Champion: Detroit Tigers (Preseason: Detroit)
NL Champion: San Diego Padres (Preseason: New York Mets)
World Series Champion: Detroit Tigers (Preseason: Detroit)
We said the Tigers were World Series bound in the preseason and we’re sticking to it. Even though they have to emerge from the stacked AL Central, Detroit certainly has the bats and pitching to compete with any team in either league. In the National League, we hopped off the Mets bandwagon in favor of the Padres because, when it comes down to it, pitching wins championships. We are, however, betting on a San Diego-New York NLCS. We also believe this is the year the Tribe makes their first postseason appearance since 1999, and even though they’re maddeningly inconsistent, the Phillies will clinch the NL Wild Card with their talent-soaked lineup.
AWARDS FORECAST
CY Young
AL: C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians (Preseason: Sabathia)
NL: Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres (Preseason: Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs)
MVP
AL: Magglio Ordonez, Detroit Tigers (Preseason: Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angles Angels)
NL: Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres (Preseason: David Wright, New York Mets)
Rookie of the Year
AL: Hideki Okajima, Boston Red Sox (Preseason: Delmon Young, Tamp Bay Devil Rays)
NL: Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies (Preseason: Tulowitzki)
Manager of the Year
AL: Mike Scioscia, Los Angeles Angels (Preseason: Scioscia)
NL: Ned Yost, Milwaukee Brewers (Preseason: Willie Randolph, New York Mets)
C.C. Sabathia is going to face stiff competition from Justin Verlander, Dan Haren and Johan Santana for the AL CY Young, but he’s always been rock solid and now has the offense to back him, so we’re with ya, Carsten Charles. Jake Peavy will have a similarly tough road in the NL, with Brad Penny and teammate Chris Young also pitching extremely well thus far, but Peavy was so dominate in the first half that it’s hard to pass on him. As for Rookie of the Year candidates, we still feel good about Troy Tulowitzki considering his defense and bat have both been outstanding for such a young player. And in the AL, it’s hard not to jump on the Hideki Okajima bandwagon after his All Star selection, especially since we chose the rather inconsistent Delmon Young in the spring. Finally, there’s no reason to think Mike Scioscia and his first-place Angels will crash anytime soon, but if the Brewers end up finishing on top in the Central, then Ned Yost is a shoe-in for the NL Manager of the Year. Sorry, Willie.