Early season surprises
12/14/2007
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The NBA season is just over a month old and there are several teams off to surprising starts. Some are good, some are bad and some are just plain ugly.
Note: Stats and records are accurate as of 12/12/2007.
THE GOOD
Orlando Magic (16-6)
The additions of forward Rashard Lewis and head coach Stan Van Gundy, along with the continued development of man-child Dwight Howard (right), has the Magic atop their division and in second place in the East. Howard is playing at an MVP level, averaging 23.1 points, 15.2 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game. He is shooting an eye-popping 60.7% from the field, but the one area where that he really needs to work on is his free throw shooting. He hasn’t shown that improved touch we heard about in the summer (60.7%) and he’s missing 4.5 free throws a game. If he could improve to 70%, his scoring average would jump by a full point.
For the most part, Lewis is doing all he can to earn that fat contract the Magic gave him. He’s averaging 19.1 points and 5.2 rebounds, which are both off slightly from his numbers last year. But that’s to be expected given his new surroundings and Van Gundy’s nightly gameplan to post Howard early and often. Lewis’ job is to shoot the long ball effectively, and thus far he’s hitting his threes at a 38.9% pace.
But the biggest surprise is the play of Hedo Turkoglu. With Grant Hill gone, Turkoglu’s minutes have risen from 31.0 last season to 36.8 this season. He is averaging 18.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists, giving the Magic a dangerous threat when opponents double-team Howard and/or Lewis.
Van Gundy’s impact can be seen on the defensive end. The Magic are second in the league in opponent FG% (42.8%), so the emphasis he is placing on that end of the court is working.
New Orleans Hornets (14-7)
I thought the Hornets would be good enough to make the playoffs this season, but I wasn’t expecting this kind of start. Having a healthy Chris Paul (right) and Peja Stojakovic certainly helps their cause. Paul is having a career year, averaging 21.0 points, 9.8 assists and 2.9 steals per game. He is shooting a career-best 48.5% from the field and 91.7% from the line, and has really worked on his long range accuracy, which is up from 35.0% to 41.2%. At the end of last season, it started to look like fellow ’05 draft pick Deron Williams might turn out to be the better point guard, but Paul is staking his claim to that title (again) with a fantastic start this season.
Stojakovic’s numbers are well off his career averages, but he’s healthy and he’s shooting a blistering 45.2% from long range. He and David West, who is averaging 18.2 points and 8.9 rebounds, are very adept at spotting up when Paul’s penetration draws their defenders away.
Meanwhile, Tyson Chandler is manning the middle. He is averaging a double-double (11.4 points and 11.0 rebounds), and is feasting on all the leftovers once Paul, Stojakovic and West get their shots.
Keep an eye on the Hornets’ head-to-head matchups with the playoff contenders in the West. If they can post a good record against the Nuggets, Warriors and Lakers, they’ll probably find themselves in the postseason come April. So far, they are 2-0, with wins against Denver and L.A.
THE BAD
Chicago Bulls (7-12)
What is going on in Chicago? The Bulls’ backcourt of Kirk Hinrich and Ben Gordon has shot a combined 37.7% from the field and 30.9% from long range. The team’s defense is decent (8th in points allowed, 9th in FG% allowed), but the Bulls simply can’t score. They are last in the league in points scored and shooting accuracy.
Luol Deng got off to a slow start this season, but since his return from missing three games due to injury, he is averaging 20.6 points and 7.2 rebounds over seven games. Andres Nocioni is averaging a career-high 15.2 points per game, but his shooting accuracy is down across the board.
Other than those four players, the Bulls don’t really have any other legitimate scoring threats. They are still lacking an offensive post presence and the big contract that they gave Ben Wallace (right) is looking like a serious salary cap blunder. His 5.1 points, 8.9 rebounds and 1.6 blocks just aren’t getting it done. Those are his worst numbers since his pre-Detroit days. Chicago would be much better off had they held onto Tyson Chandler instead. Chandler is the better player at two-thirds the cost.
Considering the Central division is probably the East’s most competitive, the Bulls’ slow start has them behind the eight ball. But it’s early, and if that shooting touch returns (and the Kobe trade talk doesn’t start back up) the Bulls will probably find themselves in the hunt for a playoff spot by the end of the season.
Miami Heat (6-15)
Without Dwyane Wade, the Heat started the season 1-6, but they haven’t played much better since his return. He is starting to look like his old self, however, and has posted three 30-plus scoring efforts in his last three games.
Shaquille O’Neal is a shell of his former self, but he’s still a fairly effective center, averaging 14.7 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game. To put those numbers in perspective, amongst all centers in the league, Shaq is sixth in points, 17th in rebounds and 13th in blocks. So basically Wade has Zydrunas Ilgauskas or Andrew Bogut as his sidekick instead of the Shaq that averaged 20/9 two seasons ago when the Heat won the title. O’Neal is only playing 28 minutes a game, which is three minutes fewer than he played in the championship season and eight minutes off his career average.
Save for the steadiness of Udonis Haslem and the potential of Dorrell Wright, the Heat don’t seem to have the developing youngsters to complement Wade once Shaq calls it quits. Wade is locked in through the 2009-10 season, but could start to make some trade noise in the middle of next season if the team doesn’t make some strides quickly.
THE UGLY
Cleveland Cavaliers (10-12)
Sure, the LeBron James injury has really hurt, but the Cavs were just 9-6 before the injury, so it’s not like they were tearing it up before King James went down. But he’s back now, and the team matched the Bobcats’ three-year, $17 million offer to Anderson Varejao, so all the pieces are back in place.
The ugliness isn’t so much with the Cavs -- though they were certainly ugly trying to play without LeBron -- it’s more about how much better the East is this season. The Celtics and Magic each made a big leap forward and it looks like the Pistons once again have some spring in their step, so the Cavs may find the going tough in the East. If they fall out of the top four in the conference and don’t have home court in the playoffs, they’re going to have a tough time getting to the Conference Finals, let alone the NBA Finals.
Houston Rockets (11-11)
The Rockets started off 6-1, with wins over the Lakers, Jazz, Spurs and Bucks, but have since regressed to hover around .500 and the frustration is growing. Is this a delayed hangover from the team’s first round exit in last year’s playoffs? Are Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming a workable tandem?
T-Mac is averaging 24.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 5.5 assists, which is about what he posted last season. Yao is averaging 3.5 fewer points than last season, but is still racking up 21.5 points and 10.0 rebounds per game.
No other Rocket averages in double digits. This is staggering considering some of the names on the roster: Shane Battier, Bonzi Wells, Mike James, Rafer Alston and Steve Francis. Like the Bulls, the Rockets are still playing pretty good defense, but are having a lot of trouble scoring.
If this keeps up, Houston may want to explore some sort of Tracy McGrady for Kobe Bryant swap. Kobe might agree to the trade if the prospect of playing with Yao appeals to him and the Lakers would get bankable and marketable talent in return. McGrady probably has a few too many miles to be the Lakers’ ideal target, but they likely aren’t going to get a better current player in return for their superstar.
Send questions and comments to jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com.