The Hype Machine: Ten players to watch
09/05/2007
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hype
Function: noun
1 : DECEPTION, PUT-ON
2 : PUBLICITY; especially : promotional publicity of an extravagant or contrived kind
In the world of fantasy football, the summer is full of speculation but often lacks any real, tangible information. When the so-called pundits start to regurgitate their peers’ thoughts, the hype surrounding a player begins to feed upon itself. Oftentimes, the player in question deserves attention, but it’s possible for this hype machine to create such demand that a player becomes overvalued. Hyped players usually fit the following profile: (1) they’re young, (2) they have had a few good games but are largely unproven and (3) their role is about to increase.
Below is a list of ten players who have been hyped to different degrees this offseason, ranked from the most hyped to the least hyped. For each player, I’m going to outline a few reasons for optimism and a few reasons for pessimism. The top rookies are always hyped, so I decided to exclude them from the list.
Note: In parenthesis, I’ve included the Antsports.com August ADP for a 12-team, PPR format, along with the positional draft ranking of each player.
1. Vincent Jackson, Chargers (7.06, WR28)
Glass half full: Over the last five games of 2006, Jackson caught 16 passes for 329 yards and three scores. Over a full season, this projects to 51-1052-10, which would have made him WR19 in 2006. He’s a physical specimen and has been compared to Terrell Owens (only without all the baggage). Keenan McCardell is gone and Jackson is now entrenched as the Chargers’ WR1. Moreover, he’s entering his third year, a common breakout season for wide receivers. Glass half empty: On a team lacking playmakers at WR, it took Jackson more than half the season to establish himself. He caught just 48% of the passes thrown his way, which isn’t very good. At best, he’ll be the third option behind LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates in the Chargers’ high-octane offense. Bottom line: No player has been hyped more this summer than Vincent Jackson. Even though he’s being drafted ahead of more proven players like Joey Galloway and Jerricho Cotchery, he has a good chance of cracking the top 20 by passing Darrell Jackson, Chris Chambers, Santana Moss and Deion Branch, all of whom are being drafted ahead of him. San Diego needs a player to take the pressure off Gates, and Jackson appears to be ready to fill that role.
2. Vernon Davis, 49ers (7.02, TE5)
Glass half full: After recovering from a broken leg suffered early in the season, Vernon Davis returned to catch 13 balls for 196 yards and two scores over the last four games. Combined with a very solid first game (5-37-1), those numbers project to 58-746-10, which would have made him TE4 in 2006. The reports out of camp have been glowing, and writers continue to use words like “dominant” and “breakout” without reservation. Glass half empty: The San Francisco offense isn’t exactly potent and it will be hurt by the loss of Norv Turner. The arrival of Darrell Jackson might help free up Davis, but could also reduce his targets. Davis wasn’t efficient in his first season, either; he caught just 48% of the passes thrown in his direction. Bottom line: It’s tough to find a single negative comment about Davis this preseason, so it appears that he is on the verge of a big year. While he’s being drafted ahead of more established players like Kellen Winslow and Chris Cooley, he has the talent to pass Todd Heap, Jeremy Shockey and Tony Gonzalez and challenge Antonio Gates for the title of TE1. It all depends on how involved he is in the 49er offense – will they make him a priority? If so, he’s in line for a breakout season.
3. Laurence Maroney, Patriots (1.10, RB10)
Glass half full: Sharing time with Corey Dillon, Laurence Maroney gained 939 yards from scrimmage and scored seven times as a rookie in 2006. Dillon is gone, so if Maroney gets just half of his touches he’s in line for 1434 yards and 10 TD, which would have made him RB12 in 2006. He’s a strong runner and played well in a RBBC last season. Glass half empty: Maroney wasn’t a particularly effective around the goal line as he converted just three of eight attempts. The Pats brought in a number of WRs and may move to more of an aerial attack in 2007. Even though he split time in ’06, Maroney missed two games and had offseason shoulder surgery. It’s not a sure thing that he’ll be able to handle the load and it’s likely that Kevin Faulk will still continue to play most of the time on third down, cutting into Maroney’s catches. Bottom line: Maroney is going in the first round ahead of established vets like Rudi Johnson, Willis McGahee and Edgerrin James. Those guys don’t have the upside of Maroney, but they probably don’t have the downside either. In the first round, it’s tough to roll the dice on a young, unproven player like Maroney, but after Reggie Bush and Willie Parker are off the board, he’s not a bad option for fantasy owners determined to draft a RB with their first pick. If he stays healthy, he will probably finish the season in the top 10.
4. D.J. Hackett, Seahawks (9.01, WR36)
Glass half full: D.J. Hackett had a nice finish last season, showing great hands as he caught 27 passes for 379 yards and three scores over the last seven games. That projects to 62 catches for 866 yards and seven TD over the course of a full season, which would have been good for WR26 in 2006. The team felt strongly enough about Hackett to let Darrell Jackson leave in free agency and everyone thinks he’ll be the team’s WR2 opposite Deion Branch. Glass half empty: Hackett hasn’t had a very good preseason and HC Mike Holmgren still hasn’t decided whom he’s going to start at split end. The Seattle offense is seemingly on the decline and Hackett hasn’t proved he can be a full-time starter. Bottom line: Hackett is better than his main competition, Nate Burleson, and should emerge as the starter. It would have been nice if he had had a good preseason, but he did well when the lights were on last year, so he should be able to crack the top 30 in 2007.
5. Tony Romo, Cowboys (6.10, QB8)
Glass half full: In 12 games as a starter, Tony Romo threw at a pace that would have garnered 3824 yards and 24 TD had he played a full season, good enough for QB3 honors. He has a full offseason as the starter and should benefit from the extra reps in camp. Two of his weapons – Terrell Owens and Jason Witten – are among the very best at their positions. Glass half empty: Opposing defenses have now had a full offseason to gameplan for Romo. Terry Glenn is still recovering from a knee injury and his prognosis doesn’t look particularly good. Bill Parcells is gone, which might hinder Romo’s development. Despite his good overall numbers, he struggled at times in 2006. Bottom line: It’s hard not to be excited about Romo’s prospects this season, but he’s going ahead of more proven QBs like Matt Hasselbeck and Ben Roethlisberger. While it’s not tough to see Romo finishing in the top 10, he could very well finish outside of the top 15 as well. The difference between QB6 and QB16 is razor thin, so while Romo is a nice prospect, a sixth round pick seems expensive.
6. Cedric Benson, Bears (3.02, RB18)
Glass half full: Thomas Jones was traded to the Jets, so Cedric Benson finally has his wish – he’s the starting RB in Chicago. He averaged 4.1 ypc last season but only carried the ball 119 times, a number that figures to more than double in 2007. The Bears have one of the best offensive lines in the game and Benson reportedly looks very good in practice. He has worked on his hands and should be much more involved in the passing game. Glass half empty: Despite being an early first round pick, Benson wasn’t able to wrest the starting job from Thomas Jones. Now that it’s been handed to him, will he respond? He seems to be constantly dinged up, so there are questions about his ability to handle the full-time load. The Chicago rushing game has struggled in the preseason and Benson doesn’t have the reputation for being a very good teammate. Bottom line: Given all the questions surrounding second round RBs this summer, Benson seems like a pretty solid pick in the third. If he can stay healthy, he should put up great numbers in one of the best rushing attacks in the league.
7. Brandon Jacobs, Giants (3.07, RB20)
Glass half full: As a result of Tiki Barber’s retirement, Brandon Jacobs takes over RB1 for the Giants. Despite a reputation for being a short-yardage back, Jacobs averaged 4.4 ypc in 2006. He only had 96 carries but scored nine times. The team brought Reuben Droughns in as competition, but the news out of camp is that Jacobs is ready to carry the load. Glass half empty: Jacobs was effective in spot duty last year, but can he be the feature back? He only caught 11 passes, so he doesn’t figure to be very involved in the passing game (reducing his value in PPR leagues). The Giants’ offense is in flux and it’s unclear how they’ll deal with losing Barber. Will they throw the ball more? Bottom line: Jacobs is a big, bruising back but he has more wiggle than people give him credit for. The offensive line isn’t particularly good but there is enough talent on that side of the ball that defenses won’t be able to focus on stopping the running game. Given all the questions surrounding the second-round RBs, Jacobs is a solid bet to finish in the top 20.
8. Jerious Norwood, Falcons (5.08, RB27)
Glass half full: Jerious Norwood is one of the fastest backs in the game. Whenever he touches the ball he’s a threat to make a big play, as evidenced by his eye-popping 6.4 ypc. The Falcons’ running game is one of the best in the league and now that Mike Vick is gone, the team will have to focus on its strengths. Warrick Dunn figures to linger, but his body is starting to break down and Norwood should be the one that gets the extra work. Playing indoors suits his incredible speed. Glass half empty: Norwood has been dealing with a stomach problem for much of camp and has yet to stake his claim as the team’s RB1. He’s not particularly big, so there is some concern about how he’ll hold up when carrying the ball 200+ times. Even though Dunn is getting older, he is always underrated. If he stays healthy, he figures to cut into Norwood’s carries. Vick’s absence will allow defenses to focus more on the running game, which may hinder both Norwood and Dunn. Bottom line: Norwood is bound to be a good fantasy RB2 at some point in his career. Whether it happens this year mostly depends on the health of Dunn. Norwood is too explosive to keep on the sideline, so expect Atlanta to give him at least 200 carries. If he succeeds, that number could approach 250, which would mean a 1,000-yard season is well within reach.
9. Bernard Berrian, Bears (8.02, WR31)
Glass half full: Bernard Berrian is a speedy WR who was used mainly as a deep threat in 2006. He burst out of the gate in the first half, catching 26 passes for 485 yards and four scores in the first seven games. His second half was spotty but he had a nice playoff run, catching 14 balls for 228 yards and two scores in three games. Despite his deep speed, Berrian has shown improved route running this summer, so he should see additional catches underneath. Glass half empty: The main problem with Berrian is the Chicago offense. The Bears us a run-based attack and Rex Grossman isn’t a very consistent QB. Like any deep threat, Berrian’s numbers fluctuate week-to-week, so he hasn’t been a dependable fantasy starter in his short career. Bottom line: Berrian is an emerging WR on a team that desperately needs one. Considering he finished as WR34 last season, drafting him WR31 in the eighth seems like a pretty good value. He should continue to progress assuming his QB doesn’t regress, but expect some bad games.
10. Vince Young, Titans (7.04, QB10)
Glass half full: Not counting Week 1, when Young played only sparingly, the rookie QB threw for 2172 yards and 12 scores. Over a full season, these numbers project to 2482 yards and 14 TDs. That’s not very impressive on its own, but when you consider his 39 rushing yards and 0.5 rushing TD per game, he starts to gain some serious fantasy value. Moreover, he was especially good down the stretch, averaging 180 passing yards, 0.9 pass TD, 52 rushing yards and 0.6 rushing TD over the last eight games. Over the course of a full season, that projects to QB2. This guy is for real. Glass half empty: Young faces a tougher schedule in 2007 and 16 teams that have had a full season of tape to watch. He’s in just his second year and figures to go through some struggles as he learns to play QB at this level. He lost his best WR (Drew Bennett) and the team did nothing to replace him. The Titans have arguably the worst receiving corps in football, which puts even more pressure on Young to make the right play. Bottom line: Young is gong to have problems in the passing game but his legs should provide fantasy owners with consistent production on the ground. The lack of playmakers around him is worrisome, but if LenDale White can be effective and one of the wideouts can emerge, Young should have a productive season. Like Romo, he could finish in the top 10, but if things don’t go his way, he could find himself outside of the top 15 at season’s end. Still, Young has tremendous upside, so he’s probably a good value in the middle rounds.
Send questions and comments to jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com.