2006-07 Year End Awards
04/23/2007
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With the NBA regular season wrapping up and the playoffs in full swing, it’s a fine time to wax nostalgic about the year and to discuss potential award winners. Let’s take a look at a few of the awards and try to predict some winners.
Most Improved Player
Historically speaking, the MIP award has foreshadowed stardom. Kevin Johnson, Jalen Rose, Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O’Neal, Gilbert Arenas, Zach Randolph and last year’s winner, Boris Diaw, all achieved star or superstar status after receiving the award.
This year’s crop is large and diverse. ESPN’s Marc Stein broke the candidates down into five categories, and I see no way to improve on his system, so I’ll just copy it and add a few names to the list.
Youngsters with low expectations and big contributions: Jose Calderon, Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins, David Lee and Luke Walton.
Journeymen finally finding a place to make an impact: Charlie Bell, Matt Barnes, Devin Brown, Ime Udoka, Mikki Moore, Matt Carroll and Jason Kapono.
Youngsters who have shown potential in the past, but are just now delivering on a regular basis: Andre Iguodala, Mo Williams, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith and Kevin Martin.
Lottery selections who are now meeting their lofty expectations: Eddy Curry and Tyson Chandler.
Starter-caliber players who have made the difficult step to star (or All-Star) status: Caron Butler, Luol Deng, Deron Williams (above) and Leandro Barbosa.
Twenty three guys, but only one player can win it.
Stein chose Biedrins over Martin and Jefferson because, “…pretty much every other player listed here had someone touting him somewhere back in October, Martin especially after his strong postseason and stronger summer league. Outside of Latvia, did Biedrins have any fans before this season?”
Stein also reminds us that, “The league's MIP guidelines clearly state that the award ‘is designed to honor an up-and-coming player’ and that it is ‘not intended to be given to a player who has made a ‘comeback.’” This is why you don’t see Carlos Boozer or Nene Hilario on this list, though one could argue that Boozer not only came back from an injury but also made a big leap this season.
All due respect to Stein, Biedrins is a fine choice, but whether or not some pundit is touting a player before the season has no discernable impact on how much that player improves year to year. For a statistical angle, let’s take a look at Efficiency Per Game (EPG) and Efficiency Per Minute (EPM) year to year. As a refresher, here’s the efficiency statistic, as calculated by the NBA:
Efficiency = ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field Goals Att. - Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. - Free Throws Made) + Turnovers))
Here are the year-to-year improvements of the 23 guys in question, sorted by improvement in EPG:
| 2005-06 | 2006-07 | % Improvement | ||||
| EPG | EPM | EPG | EPM | EPG | EPM | |
| Ime Udoka | 3.3 | 0.228 | 9.8 | 0.343 | 197% | 50% |
| Mikki Moore | 4.4 | 0.354 | 12.1 | 0.459 | 174% | 29% |
| Matt Barnes | 4.2 | 0.373 | 11.2 | 0.474 | 167% | 27% |
| Jason Kopono | 4.0 | 0.303 | 10.0 | 0.380 | 152% | 25% |
| Andris Biedrins | 7.1 | 0.486 | 17.4 | 0.594 | 146% | 22% |
| Monta Ellis | 6.1 | 0.336 | 14.9 | 0.435 | 145% | 29% |
| David Lee | 8.1 | 0.483 | 19.2 | 0.644 | 136% | 33% |
| Al Jefferson | 9.6 | 0.536 | 20.8 | 0.620 | 116% | 16% |
| Luke Walton | 7.5 | 0.387 | 14.6 | 0.441 | 95% | 14% |
| Devin Brown | 6.3 | 0.296 | 11.4 | 0.398 | 82% | 34% |
| Deron Williams | 10.5 | 0.365 | 19.0 | 0.510 | 80% | 40% |
| Matt Carroll | 6.2 | 0.372 | 10.6 | 0.406 | 71% | 9% |
| Kevin Martin | 11.1 | 0.418 | 18.4 | 0.520 | 65% | 24% |
| Mo Williams | 11.2 | 0.425 | 17.6 | 0.482 | 56% | 13% |
| Tyson Chandler | 12.8 | 0.479 | 19.2 | 0.566 | 49% | 18% |
| Charlie Bell | 8.7 | 0.399 | 12.3 | 0.352 | 42% | -12% |
| Jose Calderon | 8.3 | 0.356 | 11.4 | 0.548 | 38% | 54% |
| Leandro Barbosa | 12.1 | 0.432 | 16.4 | 0.502 | 36% | 16% |
| Josh Smith | 15.1 | 0.471 | 19.8 | 0.542 | 32% | 15% |
| Eddy Curry | 12.4 | 0.479 | 16.3 | 0.461 | 31% | -4% |
| Luol Deng | 15.5 | 0.465 | 20.1 | 0.536 | 30% | 15% |
| Andre Iguodala | 16.0 | 0.426 | 20.1 | 0.498 | 25% | 17% |
| Caron Butler | 17.4 | 0.482 | 20.4 | 0.525 | 17% | 9% |
What can we take from this? Well, there doesn’t appear to be much of a correlation between an improvement in EPM and winning the award. There probably should be, but there simply isn’t. However, the MIP in each of the last seven years has had an EPG of at least 17.1 per game, and other than O’Neal (the aberration), has improved his EPG at least 44%. This would leave Biedrins, Lee, Jefferson, Deron Williams, Martin, Mo Williams and Chandler.
Also, each of the winners was durable, playing in at least 72 games. (Actually, the seven winners averaged a very healthy 78.3 games played.) So we’ll go ahead and cross Lee (58), Mo Williams (67) and Jefferson (68) off the list, though Williams and Jefferson are right there in games played (and Lee probably would have won the award had he stayed healthy). This leaves Biedrins, Deron Williams, Martin and Chandler.
Just one of the last seven winners (McGrady, #9) was a lottery pick. This would (seem to) eliminate Deron Williams (#3) and Tyson Chandler (#2) from contention. Lottery picks, especially high ones, have huge expectations, so when they start to emerge as stars, it’s not that big of a surprise.
So we’re down to the final two: Biedrins and Martin. Over the last seven years, just one MIP (Diaw, 13.3 ppg) averaged less than 16.4 ppg. Martin (20.3) holds a huge advantage over Biedrins (9.7) in this category. Sadly, points are still the sexiest of the statistics, and many voters will give Martin the nod for just this reason. Biedrins does have an outside shot due to his rebounds (9.4), which is the second sexiest statistic. However, a poor April (5.1 ppg and 6.9 rpg in just 23 mpg) will leave voters on the fence wondering about his endurance.
In the end, either guy (along with Mo Williams, Jefferson and Lee) would be a good choice, but Martin has made huge strides this year and deserves the award. He’s been very consistent (at least 18.4 ppg in every month this season) and has established himself as the future of the Kings’ franchise.
Sixth Man of the Year
The league defines this award as the most valuable player that comes off the bench for his team. To be eligible, the player simply has to come off the bench in more games than he starts. Mike Miller, Ben Gordon and Antawn Jamison won the award the last three years.
This year, several players (from teams that are at least decent) deserve consideration -- Jerry Stackhouse, Corey Maggette, J.R. Smith, Luther Head, Andrea Bargnani, Jose Calderon and Matt Harpring. But none of those guys are in the same league as the two frontrunners, Leandro Barbosa and Manu Ginobili. (A strong case could be made for Maggette, but why would we give the award to a guy who never truly accepted the role of sixth man?)
Let’s take a look at each player’s stats as both a starter and as a reserve.
| G | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | FG% | EPG | EPM | |
| Barbosa (starter) | 18 | 39.1 | 19.6 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 44.0% | 17.6 | 0.450 |
| Barbosa (sub) | 62 | 30.8 | 17.6 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 48.8% | 16.2 | 0.526 |
| Ginobili (starter) | 36 | 28.9 | 16.4 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 45.1% | 16.7 | 0.578 |
| Ginobili (sub) | 39 | 26.2 | 16.7 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 47.7% | 17.9 | 0.684 |
Ginobili started 36 games, but that still makes him eligible for the award. (The league should really limit eligibility to players that start no more than a third of their total games.) Looking at each player’s numbers, Ginobili did more in fewer minutes, which is why he had the 16th highest EPM in the league (and the fourth highest EPM of all guards). Technically, Ginobili should win the award, but I’d bet that a lot of voters are going to eliminate him because he’s virtually a starter for the Spurs, giving Barbosa a great shot at winning. (Ed. note: The NBA announced right before publication that Barbosa did in fact win the Sixth Man award. Apparently John knows what he's talking about.)
Rookie of the Year
Rudy Gay and Andrea Bargnani made this race interesting for a while, but Brandon Roy led all rookies in minutes (35.4), points (16.8), assists (4.0) and three-point percentage (37.7%). His only weakness is games played (57), which (if he wins the ROY) will be the fewest games played by a ROY winner since Patrick Ewing’s 50 in the ‘85-86 season (not counting the shortened ’98-99 season, of course). What’s worrisome is that, at the ripe young age of 23, Roy is already missing games with sore knees.
Most Valuable Player
Ah, the MVP award. No NBA award inspires so much debate around the league. Not since the ’81-82 season has a player on a team with fewer than 50 wins won the award, so we can already cross several key names – Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Garnett, Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson and Elton Brand – off the list. I’m not saying that’s the way it should be; I’m saying that’s the way it is. That leaves several of the usual suspects – Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, Chauncey Billups, LeBron James, Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming – and one new name – Carlos Boozer – to discuss.
Considering Billups’ Pistons only managed 52 wins and Lebron’s Cavs managed just 50 (in the much weaker East) neither guy has much of a chance. Besides, LeBron took a lot of flack for his lackluster play before the All-Star break. No one’s sure who’s more important to the Rockets – McGrady or Yao – so we can cross them both off as well. That leaves the two-time winner Nash, Nowitzki, Duncan and Boozer. As good of a year that Boozer has had, he’s not going to win the award when his team is the fourth best of that group.
Let’s take a look at the stats of the final three players:
| Wins | EPG | EPM | PPG | RPG | APG | FG% | |
| Nash | 61 | 24.5 | 0.694 | 18.6 | 3.5 | 11.6 | 53.2% |
| Nowitzki | 67 | 26.9 | 0.745 | 24.6 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 50.2% |
| Duncan | 58 | 25.4 | 0.745 | 20.0 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 54.6% |
The stats of Duncan and Nowitzki are eerily similar and the Big Fundamental isn’t going to beat out the Big German when his team has nine fewer wins, so that leaves Nowitzki and Nash. A strong argument could be made for Nash, who has put up career highs in assists, field goal percentage and three point percentage (45.5%), while leading his team to 61 wins. From a statistical standpoint, he had a better season than the last two years, so why shouldn’t he win his third MVP award?
This is why this year’s MVP race is so interesting. It isn’t so much about what kind of a year Nowitzki had; it’s about whether or not the press is ready to put Nash in the same group as the other 3+ MVP winners (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlin, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson and Moses Malone). Of that list, Bird, Magic and Moses won it three times, while the rest won it four or more times. So does Nash belong in the same group as Bird, Magic and Moses? A case could be made that Nash is as good or better than Moses, but given the Suns’ lack of playoff success, I don’t think the sportswriters around the country are ready to put him alongside transcendent players like Bird and Magic.
Has this award turned into a popularity contest? Certainly of all the past winners, most sportswriters can relate best with Nash, who at 6’3” and 195 lbs (and white) is able to do things he shouldn’t be able to do on the basketball court. He is fun to watch and there is no doubt that he makes his team go. But with Nowitzki’s terrific year (and the Mavs’ run to the Finals last summer), he has provided the perfect excuse not to put Nash amongst the likes of Bird and Magic.
So those are my predictions: Martin for MIP, Barbosa for Sixth Man, Roy for ROY and Dirk for the MVP. They’ll announce these awards over the next few weeks, so we’ll be able to see how accurate I am.
Questions or comments? Send them to jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com.